Hydrological forecasts from the National Directorate of Water Resources Management (DNGRH) of Mozambique predict that around 800,000 individuals could be affected by floods during the next rainy season.
Agostinho Vilanculos, who heads the Department of Water Resources, said the projected number of areas that could be affected by flooding is not the only concern. He also predicts that regions with substantial agricultural potential are at risk of being affected by flooding.
The speaker shared predictions about the potential impacts of floods, excluding cyclones and other events. They stated that approximately 800,000 people could be impacted by these floods. Furthermore, they noted that the affected areas could cover around 280 thousand hectares.
The speaker presented his reflections at the X National Climate Forecast Forum, an event that lasted just one day and was organized by the National Institute of Meteorology (INAM), in Maputo. The objective of this forum was to disseminate information regarding the Seasonal Climate Forecast for the next rainy season of 2023/24, as well as hydrological, agricultural, public health, infrastructure and energy management scenarios.
The speaker indicated that there is a moderate possibility of flooding in the southern region. This is due to the high level of the Pequenos Libombos Dam, which currently stores 350 million cubic meters of water. Managing this situation requires careful consideration and attention.
As Vilankulo notes, the countries of South Africa and the Kingdom of Eswatini, located both upstream and adjacent to Mozambique, have immense water storage capacity comparable to that of Mozambique. This indicates that any precipitation that occurs in these regions has the potential to be converted into runoff and subsequently flow into the national territory of Mozambique.
The current situation leaves us with a moderate risk forecast for the Umbelúzi and Incomáti Basins during the first flood season, from October to December. The forecast was made by the expert who emphasized the possibility of convergence from moderate to high risk during the second period from January to March, particularly in the southern region.
The central and northern regions are expected to receive average precipitation, with a tendency for above-average precipitation. This is especially true during the second half of the rainy season, where there is a moderate to high probability of flooding.
There is a possibility that this projection could deteriorate if, for example, a cyclone scenario occurs. However, in the absence of such an event, he noted.
AIM
